Zogby, shmogby: Can a chat board predict Iowa?

DES MOINES, IOWA — Based upon a review of predictions made by over 250 chatters at The Daily Kos, The Columbia-Union has assembled a guesstimate of the outcome and turnout in Monday's Iowa caucuses, which will select delegates to the Democratic National Convention this summer.

After averaging all the predictions made at the heavily-trafficked KOS site, and adjusting them equally so that they total 100%, The ‘Union’ predicts the following outcome in Monday’s caucuses:

27.8% — Howard Dean
22.9% — John Kerry
22.0% — Dick Gephardt
19.1% — John Edwards
3.4% — Dennis Kucinich
4.8% — Uncommitted/Other

The KOS posters also attempt to predict the voter turnout in the caucuses; their predictions averaged just over 11.5%, which is average to high for Iowa.

NOTED: These highly-speculative percentages have nothing to do with any analysis of actual Iowa voter preferences, apart from the more than 250 estimates on the Daily KOS site. It should prove interesting, nonetheless, to see how accurate these web posters are when the actual results come in.